Uniqus Insights

COP 28 – A curtain raiser

28, November 2023

COP28 Overview

What is COP?

The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the supreme decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in which representatives from 198 parties and countries gather annually to discuss and negotiate collective actions to address climate change. The UNFCCC aims to ensure that countries take measures to prevent extreme climate change scenarios as well as to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts.

The annual COP meetings play a pivotal role in shaping global climate policy and allow parties to assess

current progress towards goals and commitments. For example, the well- known Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC, which was adopted at COP21 in 2015, and the first Global Stocktake (GST) of the implementation of the Paris Agreement will take place at COP28.

What is COP28?

The Government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference from November 30th to December 12th 2023 in Dubai, UAE. This conference will comprise the headlining

28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the UNFCCC, with an objective to build on previous successes and pave the way for future ambition to effectively tackle the global climate change crisis.

Why is COP28 significant?

Climate change is evident globally, with the undoubted reality that its impacts befall portions of the world’s population who can least afford its consequences. The Paris Accords set an initial target of curbing emissions by 43% from 2019 levels by 2030, to realistically limit global warming to less than

1.5° C and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, based on scientific evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The world today is at a halfway point. Seven years have passed since the Paris Agreement, with seven years to go until 2030. Countries across the world must cooperate to meet the Paris Agreement’s targets, else face climate change impacts, such as more frequent and extreme weather events and chronic changes to ecosystems, which underpin the stability of our global economic and financial systems.

COP28 UAE will be a milestone moment when the world will take stock of its progress on the Paris Agreement. Specifically, the first Global Stock Take (GST) will provide a comprehensive assessment of progress against the Paris Accords since the 2015 agreement was made. This assessment, will inform the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that countries should submit in 2025 with targets for 2035.

What is the COP28 thematic program and Plan of Action?

The COP28 thematic program is designed to unite a diverse range of stakeholders – all levels of governments, youth groups, businesses, investors, civil society, NGOs, frontline communities, indigenous peoples, and others – around specific solutions that must be scaled up this decade to limit warming to 1.5° C, build resilience, and mobilize finance at scale. This set of solutions constitutes the response to the GST, looking where the world stands on climate action and support, identifying the gaps, and working together to agree on solutions’ pathways to 2030 and beyond.

The COP28 Presidency has called on governments and key climate stakeholders to act in four areas, which will build upon past COPs andother multilateral outcomes¹:

1. https://www.cop28.com/en/letter-to-parties

Building Upon COP27

What was decided at COP27?

At last year’s COP27, world leaders gathered in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt to regain trust in multilateralism (i.e., international cooperation), and agreed on a plan to tackle the most significant and urgent challenges of our time, as the world bears the grunt of climate disruption and its collateral damages.

Parties at COP27 agreed on five key takeaways:

To establish a dedicated fund for loss and damage
To maintain a clear intention for keeping 1.5°C within reach
To hold businesses and institutions accountable
To mobilize additional financial support for developing countries
To make a shift towards implementation

Establish a dedicated fund for loss and damage3

A breakthrough agreement on providing loss and damage financing for vulnerable countries struck by floods, droughts or other climate disasters was reached at the end of COP27.

According to UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, “This outcome does move us forward . . . We have determined a way forward on a decades-long conversation on funding for loss and damage – deliberating over how we address the impacts on communities whose lives and livelihoods have been ruined by the very worst impacts of climate change.”

Earlier in November 2023, a consensus of 24 countries negotiated a voluntary agreement to contribute to such a fund, to be housed by the World Bank2. The proposal is expected to be further debated, finalized, and adopted at COP28.

Maintain a clear intention for keeping 1.5°C within reach

According to the IPCC, limiting warming to less than 1.5°C will reasonably require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak by 2025 at the latest and decrease by 43% compared to a 2019 baseline by 20303. This gives the world just a seven-year window from now. Presently, global efforts to meet the 1.5°C objective are lagging. The UN’s Climate Change report highlights that, by the end of the century, the world will be 2.5 to 2.9 °C4 warmer than pre-industrial levels despite existing commitments made by national governments.

COP28 will require countries to evaluate their current progress towards achieving the goals set out by the Paris Accords through the GST process and COP28 programming. COP28 is expected to result in renewed commitments from governments to implement plans for climate action, which will keep the world on track to limit warming to under 1.5°C over the next seven years.

2. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/tensions-soar-over-new-fund-climate-loss-damage-ahead- cop28-2023-10-23/

Hold businesses and institutions accountable

All stakeholders at COP27 – including sectors, enterprises, and institutions – undertook commitments in accordance with this new phase of implementation. Market actors will need to maintain transparency across these commitments and focus on accountability moving forward.

COP28 will continue this inclusion of businesses. To be successful, COP28 outcomes will need to include adequate mechanisms for accountability and scrutiny, and not just inclusion, of market stakeholders.

Mobilize additional financial support for developing countries

Sufficient funds will be required to mitigate climate change, mobilize loss and damage, and implement climate technologies. COP27’s cover decision,
known as the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan, envisions an investment of at least USD 4-6 trillion per year to transform the world into a low carbon
economy. This financing will need to be done quickly and comprehensively, involving governments, central banks, commercial banks, funding institutions
as well as other custodians of capital.
The call for developed countries to provide financial resources to replenish the Green Climate Fund is one of the most important outcomes from various
decisions on climate finance. The current annual adaptation finance gap by 2030 is about USD 194-366 billion5. That said the Adaptation Fund is growing
significantly and now has a total commitment over USD 1 billion6 on 160 concrete adaptation projects catering to 41 million most vulnerable beneficiaries
in developing countries.million and the Specific Climate Change Fund totaling USD 35.0 million, have been approved by all parties7.
The UNFCCC’s Standing Committee on Finance has prepared a report on the doubling adaptation finance and a biennial progress report on the goal to
achieve USD 100 billion per year to address the climate action needs of developing countries starting in 2024, which will both be discussed at COP28.

3. https://unfccc.int/maintaining-a-clear-intention-to-keep-15degc-within-reach

4. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023

5. https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022

6. https://www.adaptation-fund.org/cop28/

Make a shift towards implementation

Implementation is an increasingly necessary element espoused throughout the suite of decisions adopted at COP27, aiming to strengthen nations’ action towards reducing emissions and adapting to unavoidable climate change impacts. Significantly, nations resolved to make the climate change transition not only ambitious, but also just and equitable. At COP27, parties deciding to establish a Work Programme on ‘Just Transition’ that is expected to build upon and complement the work already underway to quickly scale up mitigation ambition and implementation.

Programming at COP28 will have a renewed focus on implementation of climate action as well. As Simon Stiell mentioned, “The heart of implementation is: Everybody, everywhere in the world, every single day, doing everything they possibly can to address the climate crisis.”

7. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-conference- november-2022/five-key-takeaways-from-cop27/mobilizing-more-financial-support-for-developing-countries

8. https://unfccc.int/making-the-pivot-toward-implementation

Uniqus’ Expectations for COP28

What are the focus areas for COP28?

Both COP27 and COP28 share a marked similarity, as both are hosted in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, resulting in increased cooperation across the region’s broader climate ambitions.

At COP28, the Presidency has announced four cross-cutting themes in its thematic days programming which underpin effective, interconnected delivery and highlight subjects raised by stakeholders:

Following the World Climate Action Summit, these themes will be the focus of the summit programming on the days of the event.

Uniqus: Keeping these themes in mind and mapping them with the outcomes from Sharm el-Sheikh, it is a collective responsibility of attendees to COP28 to mobilize funds and actions from local, national, and international sources as a matter of priority.

01. Technology and innovation: How will nations identify, innovate, and invest in the proper green technologies to drive climate action?

02. Finance: In the endeavor to meet green finance targets, who will pay for climate change action?

03. Frontline communities: How to ensure that they are not left out?

04. Inclusion: How will nations become accountable to accelerate mitigation efforts?

Conclusion

Clearly, the world is at a critical junction today, and COP28, with its first Global Stocktake, must strive to create the biggest push to achieve global and national climate change goals. Uniqus is closely monitoring all the developments around COP28, aiming to identify risks and opportunities deriving as a result of the discussions and negotiations, by the world leaders, and their impacts for both governments and businesses.

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